It is difficult to imagine that anyone has missed the fact that we are a couple of months away from a General Election. It seems that a constant campaign is in train with the likelihood that just about everyone will be exhausted by the rhetoric and sick and tired of the name calling long before they reach the polling booth.
Which is a shame: this is an important political moment and will have significant consequences for business and - in particular - our business. The aggressive tone of the Labour Party towards business leaders (and clients) like Steffano Pessina of Boots is worrying because the choice we make on 7 May 2015 will have important implications for the communications industry.
All three main parties are committed to some level of austerity and consequent cuts in public spending. In 1997 the incoming Blair Government started a spending boom which enlarged the public sector and created thousands of jobs in communications. A Milliband Administration will offer no such prospect. In fact, for those - often traditionally Labour - regions where the public sector has led the growth of the PR industry, the prospects are for further contraction. This may be particularly the case for Wales where it seems that the public finances are completely bust.
Scotland is an exception. The post Referendum rise of the SNP and the promises made during the campaign mean that business has to take Scotland much more seriously. Greater powers for the Scottish Parliament and other Scottish institutions, coupled with the possibility of significant Westminster clout for the SNP means that there will be a much more level of opportunity for PR and public affairs practitioners.
In the event of a re-run of the Coalition at Westminster we will see more public spending cuts and fewer public sector PR jobs. However, the likely uptick in business confidence (however justified) which would accompany either a Cameron victory or a second coalition with a similar focus on the deficit might well see a more expansive view towards investment - particularly in reputation and understanding political risk - from the private sector. The possibility of a European referendum and the orgy of campaigning which would accompany it also promises much short-term work.
But 7 May 2015 will make a difference only at the margins. It's the forces behind the wave of voter dissatisfaction and its manifestation of support for the political fringe which will really drive prospects for our business: it's all about demographics and technology innovation.
These are the crucial elements of globalisation, seen by some as an opportunity and by others as a cause for fear. These days people are highly knowledgeable and very mobile. If they don't like their prospects where they live, they will move. The biggest beneficiary of this force is London. Increasingly, the city has an economy independent of the UK and a population to match. Fuelled by its wonderful time zone position, it has become very much the world business capital. Where goes business and its leaders so grows the PR business - whether serving the corporates based here, the finance houses operating here or the individuals living here and their consumer needs.
If the UK PR business continues to offer high quality strategic thinking and excellent execution it will continue to thrive. We have the advantages of having perhaps the most skilled and savvy practitioners, compounded by the fact that English is the world business language. Add to that the profound global influence of the BBC - particularly in Africa and Asia - and there is a rich seam of opportunity. As an industry we just have to seize it .